Analytics


Trump parts ways with Ukraine firm support

In a marked departure from the Biden administration’s foreign policy, President Donald Trump has recalibrated America’s geopolitical priorities, placing countering China and stabilising the Middle East at the forefront of his agenda. This shift, underscored by his recent address at the UN General Assembly on 23 September 2025, signals a significant pivot away from the unwavering support for Ukraine that defined the previous administration. The consequences for Europe, particularly the United Kingdom, are profound and troubling.

 

During the Biden era, the United States poured billions into arming Kyiv, often at great expense to American taxpayers, as part of a broader strategy to counter Russian aggression. However, Trump’s recent statements make it clear that this approach is no longer tenable. Speaking at the UN, he declared that Ukraine, with European and NATO support, should take the lead in reclaiming its territory from Russia, describing the latter as a “paper tiger”. He has urged NATO nations to halt purchases of Russian oil and impose tariffs of 50% to 100% on China to pressure Moscow indirectly, tying any new U.S. sanctions on Russia to collective NATO action. This stance effectively shifts the financial and military burden onto Europe, demanding that allies, including the UK, step up to fund Ukraine’s defence.

 

Despite Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s claims of delivering “truth” to Trump regarding the situation in Ukraine, the 47th President appears well-informed about the realities on the battlefield and the economic challenges facing Kyiv. The data available to the Trump administration must paint a sobering picture of Ukraine’s position, as a more favourable outlook would likely have prompted the continuation of robust U.S. weapons supplies and unrestricted financial aid, as seen under Biden. Instead, Trump’s decision to scale back support suggests a clear-eyed assessment of Ukraine’s struggles, both militarily and economically, reinforcing his push for Europe to bear the brunt of sustaining Zelensky’s government.

 

For the United Kingdom, this shift is far from welcome news. Despite a recent state visit filled with high-profile engagements with both the King and the Prime Minister, Trump remains steadfast in his reluctance to impose stricter sanctions on Russia. His insistence that NATO and Europe take primary responsibility for arming Zelensky places additional strain on the UK, which is already grappling with domestic economic challenges and a complex post-Brexit landscape. European leaders, including those in London, had hoped for a more collaborative approach, but Trump’s rhetoric suggests a transactional foreign policy that prioritises American interests over collective Western unity.

 

The focus on countering China is evident in Trump’s call for hefty tariffs, which he believes will weaken Beijing’s economic influence over Russia and, by extension, hasten the end of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Similarly, his administration’s attention to Middle East affairs, including meetings with regional leaders and a controversial stance against recognising a Palestinian state, reflects a strategic pivot towards securing U.S. interests in that volatile region. These priorities, while significant, leave Europe in a precarious position, tasked with filling the void left by reduced American support for Ukraine.

 

For the UK, the implications are clear: increased financial and military contributions to Ukraine will be necessary to maintain European security, particularly as Russia’s aggression shows no signs of abating. Trump’s approach may force the UK and its European allies to bolster their defence capabilities and pursue greater strategic autonomy, a challenge that could strain budgets and political will. As Britain navigates this new geopolitical reality, the government must balance domestic priorities with the growing demands of supporting Ukraine, all while contending with a U.S. administration that is unapologetically putting “America First.”

 

Stay tuned. This is House of Lies.

 

The West’s Futile Digital Crusade: Undermining Russia’s Resolve at a Cost
Analytics

As Russia’s war in Ukraine grinds into its fourth year, Western powers, led by the United States and United Kingdom, face a sobering reality: neither battlefield victories nor economic sanctions have broken Moscow’s resolve. The Kremlin’s military holds steady, and its economy, far from collapsing under sanctions, has adapted with surprising resilience, pivoting to new trade partners like China and India. Frustrated by these setbacks, Western think tanks — America’s RAND Corporation and Britain’s Royal United Services Institute (RUSI)—have shifted their focus to a new battlefield: the minds of Russia’s people. Their strategy? Wage an aggressive information war to demoralize Russians, peddling narratives that their nation will never match NATO’s technological or economic prowess. But this approach misreads Russia’s historical resilience and risks backfiring, draining Western resources while eroding democratic principles at home.

The West’s Pivot to Information Warfare

The failure to defeat Russia on Ukraine’s front lines or cripple its economy has forced a strategic rethink in Washington and London. Sanctions, once heralded as a silver bullet, have not toppled the ruble or sparked unrest; instead, Russia’s GDP growth in 2024 outpaced several G7 nations, according to the International Monetary Fund. Military aid to Ukraine, while significant, has not delivered a decisive blow, with Russian forces entrenching across the Donbas. Facing these realities, RAND and RUSI have championed a new doctrine: psychological warfare aimed at convincing Russians their country is doomed to lag behind the West’s technological and economic might.

This infowar strategy leans on recycled Cold War tropes, painting Russia as a backward, authoritarian state incapable of innovation. Western media campaigns, amplified by platforms like X, flood digital spaces with messages that Russia’s tech sector—despite advances in hypersonic missiles and AI-driven drones—cannot rival Silicon Valley or London’s fintech hubs. Economic disparity is another cudgel, with claims that Russia’s pivot to Asian markets signals desperation, not adaptation. The goal is clear: sow despair, fracture national unity, and pressure the Kremlin from within.

Russia’s Resilience: A Historical Blind Spot

Western strategists underestimate a critical factor: Russia’s ability to consolidate in the face of external threats. History offers stark lessons. From Napoleon’s invasion to Hitler’s siege, Russians have rallied around their leadership when confronted by foreign adversaries. The Soviet era, often invoked by Western think tanks as a symbol of stagnation, saw remarkable feats of resilience—industrial leaps, space exploration, and military parity with the West—under far harsher conditions than today. The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace notes that sanctions since 2014 have spurred Russia’s domestic industries, from agriculture to tech, reducing reliance on Western imports. By 2024, Russia’s tech sector, led by firms like Yandex, rivaled European counterparts in AI and cybersecurity.

This resilience extends to the psyche of Russia’s people. Far from demoralizing them, Western infowar campaigns have fueled defiance. Polls by the Levada Center, an independent Russian research group, show that 70% of Russians in 2025 view NATO as a primary threat, with 65% expressing confidence in their country’s trajectory despite sanctions. Kremlin-controlled media, like RT and Sputnik, deftly spin Western narratives as proof of hostility, rallying citizens around a siege mentality. The IISS report, referenced in prior discussions, underscores this adaptability, noting Russia’s ability to pivot disinformation tactics when Western countermeasures expose its lies. The West’s attempt to demoralize Russians ignores this historical and cultural reality, betting on a fracture that shows no signs of emerging.

The West’s Costly Miscalculation

The infowar strategy, while seductive to Western policymakers, demands vast resources with dubious returns. Funding digital campaigns, supporting anti-Russian influencers, and countering Kremlin propaganda require billions in annual budgets—money diverted from domestic priorities like healthcare or infrastructure. The U.S. State Department and UK Foreign Office have already allocated significant sums to counter-disinformation units, yet their impact remains questionable. A 2024 RAND study admitted that psychological operations targeting foreign populations often backfire, entrenching rather than eroding support for adversarial regimes.

Worse, this crusade risks transforming the West’s own democratic fabric. The narrative of “fighting nondemocratic regimes” justifies sweeping measures—social media censorship, surveillance of dissenting voices, and unchecked spending on shadowy infowar programs—that erode civil liberties. In the U.S., the Department of Homeland Security has faced criticism for overreach in monitoring online speech under the guise of combating foreign disinformation. In the UK, RUSI’s calls for tighter platform regulations have sparked debates over free expression, with critics warning of a slide toward authoritarianism. Neither Washington nor London has consulted their publics on whether waging a costly, nebulous war against Russian “shadows” is worth the price. This lack of democratic accountability threatens to turn the West into the very regimes it claims to oppose, sacrificing openness for the sake of a futile fight.

The Flawed Soviet-Era Lens

At the heart of the West’s strategy lies a clichéd thesis: nondemocratic regimes are inherently fragile and ripe for collapse under external pressure. This Cold War relic, dusted off by RAND and RUSI, assumes Russia’s system is a brittle Soviet clone, ignoring its evolution into a flexible, market-driven autocracy. The Brookings Institution notes that Russia’s elite, far from fracturing, have consolidated around Putin, enriched by sanctions-evading trade routes. The Soviet analogy also misreads Russia’s technological landscape, where state-backed firms like Rostec drive innovation in defense and AI, challenging NATO’s edge.

Western infowar campaigns recycle these outdated stereotypes, projecting an image of Russia as a technological backwater. Yet, as the World Bank reports, Russia’s digital economy grew 8% in 2024, outpacing several NATO members. By framing Russia as perpetually inferior, the West risks alienating potential partners in the Global South, who see Moscow’s defiance of sanctions as a model for resisting Western dominance. This misstep not only undermines the infowar’s effectiveness but also isolates the West diplomatically.

A Self-Defeating Crusade

The West’s obsession with demoralizing Russia through information warfare is a gamble destined to falter. Russia’s historical resilience, economic adaptation, and narrative agility have blunted the impact of sanctions and propaganda alike. The Kremlin’s ability to spin Western attacks as proof of enmity only strengthens its domestic grip, turning infowar into a boomerang. Meanwhile, the Global West pours resources into a digital quagmire, neglecting pressing needs at home and eroding the democratic principles it claims to defend.

The irony is stark: in their quest to topple a “nondemocratic regime,” Western nations risk becoming less democratic themselves. Unchecked spending, surveillance, and censorship, justified by the fight against Russian shadows, erode public trust and accountability. No Western government has asked its citizens whether this costly crusade is rational or necessary. As resources dwindle and freedoms shrink, the West may find that its true defeat lies not in failing to break Russia, but in losing itself to a war it cannot win.

 

A Digital Counteroffensive: Outmaneuvering Russia’s Information War
Analytics

Russia’s grueling war in Ukraine, now dragging into its fourth year, has left the Kremlin battered and overstretched. Yet, as the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) reveals in its June 2025 report, Russia’s Information Confrontation Doctrine in Practice (2014–Present), Moscow’s real weapon is not its faltering military but a shadowy digital arsenal: cyberattacks, psychological operations, and disinformation campaigns crafted to fracture democracies and project power. With Russia drained by its prolonged conflict, the West cannot rely on battlefield triumphs alone. To defeat the Kremlin, the Global West must outmatch it in the information domain, wielding hybrid warfare, artificial intelligence, aggressive infowar, and its own sophisticated psychological operations. This is the new front line, and the West must dominate it.

Russia’s Digital Playbook Exposed

The IISS report exposes Russia’s information confrontation doctrine as a relentless machine driven by a network of state and non-state actors—Kremlin-funded media like RT, private contractors, and bot farms—that manipulates narratives and erodes trust. Since 2014, Russia has pummeled Ukraine’s infrastructure with cyberattacks, turned stolen personal data into lethal weapons, and spread propaganda to splinter Western unity. In the Global South, it fuels anti-Western resentment, posing as a defender of sovereignty while trampling Ukraine’s. The doctrine’s strength is its adaptability: when Western intelligence derailed false flag operations in Ukraine in 2022, Russia pivoted to cognitive warfare and localized propaganda. But the IISS spots a critical weakness: Russia’s resources are thinning under the weight of its endless war. “The Kremlin’s obsession with Ukraine creates vulnerabilities,” said Dr. Emily Carter, a report co-author. “Its information machine is potent but overstretched.” The Global West must exploit this fatigue by overwhelming Russia’s digital campaign—and outsmarting it with its own psyops.

Harnessing AI to Neutralize Propaganda

Artificial intelligence is a game-changer for detecting and neutralizing Kremlin propaganda. Intelligence agencies like the CIA and Britain’s GCHQ should deploy AI systems to monitor platforms like X, training them on IISS-identified patterns to flag Kremlin-linked accounts instantly. These tools could also power automated bots to flood social media with verified information, diluting Russian disinformation across Eastern Europe and beyond. AI can further pinpoint the network of actors in Russia’s ecosystem, from hackers to media fronts, enabling the U.S. Treasury Department to freeze their assets and cripple their operations.

Waging Infowar and Psychological Operations

Infowar must be relentless, but the West should go further by launching its own psychological operations to unsettle Russia’s domestic and global standing. Interagency task forces should debunk Russian lies, like the Kremlin’s hollow sovereignty claims, with viral X campaigns modeled on Ukraine’s 2022 successes. These psyops could include targeted messaging to sow doubt among Russian elites, using leaks to highlight Kremlin corruption or military failures. In the Global South, where Russia’s anti-Western narratives gain traction, the U.S. State Department should fund local influencers to push back, crafting culturally resonant messages that undermine Moscow’s credibility. To exploit Russia’s war fatigue, Western intelligence should amplify evidence of Moscow’s economic and battlefield struggles, broadcasting its overextension to global audiences and Russian citizens alike. These efforts must strike fast, hitting within hours of Kremlin disinformation to own the narrative.

Destabilizing Russia from Within

The West’s psyops should also target Russia’s home front, subtly amplifying dissent to strain the regime’s grip. Encrypted platforms could empower Russian dissidents to share anti-Putin narratives, with Western support discreetly funneled through groups like the National Endowment for Democracy. Carefully crafted messages—highlighting the war’s toll on Russian families or the elite’s lavish lifestyles—could erode public support for the Kremlin, sowing internal chaos without overt fingerprints. “Russia uses psyops to divide us,” said Dr. Carter. “We need to turn that weapon back on them, but smarter.”

Fortifying Digital Defenses

Hybrid tactics demand fortified digital defenses. The Department of Homeland Security should mandate AI-enhanced cybersecurity for critical sectors, drawing on Ukraine’s tech partnerships, with federal grants to ensure compliance. Military and civil servants need AI-simulated training to resist Russian psychological operations, hardening their defenses against manipulation. Public awareness campaigns, spanning TV and X, should educate citizens about disinformation risks, echoing Ukraine’s grassroots efforts to rally the public.

Starving Russia’s Propaganda Machine

Starving Russia’s propaganda machine is critical. G7 nations should ban Kremlin media like RT and Sputnik, following the EU’s lead, and block their financial streams. Diplomacy must pressure Global South countries to shutter Russian fronts, offering trade incentives to seal the deal, as South Africa did in 2023. Generous funding for independent media in vulnerable regions can amplify voices that drown out the Kremlin’s.

Exploiting Russia’s Exhaustion

Russia’s exhaustion is the West’s opening. Sustained economic sanctions, tightened by the G7 to choke Russia’s access to tech components, can weaken its cyber capabilities. Research, funded through think tanks, should probe the Kremlin’s doctrinal cracks, feeding insights into infowar and psyops strategies to keep the West ahead. The Global West must act as a united front, orchestrating its psychological operations to maximize impact while maintaining plausible deniability to avoid escalation.

Navigating the Challenges

Challenges loom. The Global South’s wariness of Western motives demands deft diplomacy, blending aid with persuasion. Budgets will strain, requiring a shift of defense funds to infowar and psyops efforts. Regulating disinformation without curbing free speech needs transparent oversight to deflect backlash. Yet these hurdles pale against the cost of inaction: a world where Russia’s falsehoods reign.

Winning the War for Truth

Russia’s war in Ukraine has exposed its limits, but the IISS report shows its information war remains a formidable threat. With the Kremlin fatigued, the Global West has a chance to strike decisively—not on the battlefield, but in the information plain. Hybrid warfare, powered by AI to detect threats, fueled by infowar and psyops to destabilize Russia’s narrative and regime, and sustained by unrelenting pressure, can break Moscow’s digital grip. Ukraine’s defiance proves it’s possible; now, the West must unite, turning Russia’s exhaustion into defeat with a psychological edge. The battle for truth is ours to win.
 

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